Four tranches, A through D, sized to the Master Entity's phased delivery. Triggers are disclosed. Sequencing is honest. Returns are scenario-modelled, not promised.
Three scenarios. Stress, base, and stretch. The trigger structure means downside is bounded by what's actually delivered. Tier badges remain on every figure.
| Scenario | Phase A IRR | Blended IRR · 24-yr | Cash multiple | Capital at risk · A | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stress | 8.2% | 9.4% | 2.1× | $4.2B | T3 |
| Base | 11.8% | 13.2% | 3.0× | $4.2B | T3 |
| Stretch | 15.4% | 16.9% | 4.2× | $4.2B | T3 |
All scenario figures are Tier 3 stated assumptions. Capital at risk reflects Phase A tranche only — subsequent tranches gated by occupancy triggers.
Independent third-party verification of physical progress, occupancy, and infrastructure milestones. Tier-tagged.
No tranche releases without verified occupancy threshold. Independent audit prior to each release.
Agricultural belt is registered as a perpetual easement. Conversion is not legally permitted.
No anchor enters construction without heritage register clearance. ICOMOS-aligned.
Existing village tenure registered against title before adjacent anchor delivery commences.
Investor-elected committee with right of inspection, evidence-stack review, and veto on belt and heritage matters.
Capital can enter at the package level — not only at the phase level. Five core packages (~$8.8B, ex-BRT) plus the BRT spine (~$4.8B) as a separable infrastructure deal. Each row below has its own risk profile, return logic, and counterparty fit.
Sanctions review, land acquisition, studies. Pre-construction discipline.
50,000 residents · 12,500 DU · BRT spine breaks ground.
250,000 residents · 64,500 DU · full infrastructure backbone.
600,000 residents · 155,000 DU · civic core consolidates.
1,000,000 residents · 258,000 DU · belt closure · BRT terminus.
Strategic Intelligence Hub year-one operating cost. Return multiple modelled at >2,000× against value-at-risk avoided through evidence discipline. T0
Annual GDP contribution at Year 20. Range reflects scenario sensitivity. T0
One corridor at maturity contributes uplift equivalent to ~70–100% of current Syrian GDP. Programme-level, not deal-level. T0
Cumulative corridor tax receipts cover sovereign commitment between Year 12 and Year 15 in the base scenario. T0
Diligence access is granted to verified institutional counterparties — sovereign anchors, DFIs, and qualified private institutional investors. We confirm receipt within 72 hours and respond with a counterparty review within 10 business days.