04Evidence Stack

Every claim is tiered.
Tier shown beside the claim.

Tier 1: ground truth. Tier 2: standards-aligned models. Tier 3: stated assumptions. Tier 0: intent. The badge appears in-line with the claim — not in a footnote you have to hunt for.

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All
Full register
Complete claims register across the corridor.
18
T1
Ground truth
Cadastral surveys, on-site instrumentation, archaeology cleared by official register.
14
T2
Standards-aligned
Hydrology, capacity and demand models built to ICOMOS, IFI and corridor-comparable methods.
7
T3
Stated assumption
Disclosed assumptions, sensitivity ranges, scenario inputs.
Tier ID Claim Source As of
T1 REG-001 13,010 ha corridor area · cadastral cross-check. Cadastral cross-check FEB 2026
T1 REG-002 7,350 ha agricultural belt — bound by perpetual easement. Plan + covenant register FEB 2026
T1 HYD-001 Wadi Barada baseline flow · 9 monitoring stations, 36-month record. On-site instrumentation JAN 2026
T2 HYD-002 Sub-basin water budget — 30-year horizon · MIKE-SHE method. Standards-aligned model FEB 2026
T1 HER-001 Roman Temple, S07 — heritage register clearance. Heritage register FEB 2026
T1 HER-002 12 archaeological sites — survey complete, ICOMOS-aligned. Field archaeology JAN 2026
T2 HER-003 UNESCO buffer zone — Damascus Old City visual axis preserved. ICOMOS guidance JAN 2026
T1 AGR-001 Existing tenure — 4,210 households across 14 villages. Tenure registry FEB 2026
T2 AGR-002 Belt productivity model — olive, stone-fruit, grain. Cooperative + corridor-comparable FEB 2026
T2 FIN-001 Phase A capital · $4.2B · IFI-comparable infrastructure stack. Capital model · IFI methods FEB 2026
T2 FIN-002 Programmatic DFI co-investment pathway — healthcare, education, energy. DFI engagement, indicative FEB 2026
T3 FIN-003 Sequenced phasing trigger — Phase B opens at occupancy ≥ 70% Phase A. Stated assumption FEB 2026
T1 MAS-001 28 km BRT spine · Yafour West → Qatana · 14 stations. Master plan + transit study FEB 2026
T2 MAS-002 Density target ~360 p/ha at T6 core · corridor-comparable to Damascus historic. Density study, comparable FEB 2026
T3 MAS-003 Maturity at 2050 · 1,000,000 residents · stated programme. Programme target FEB 2026
04.BHeritage register · 12 sites

Twelve sites surveyed.
Each one cleared.

HER-S07 · T1

Roman Temple

Civic interchange · Al-Qurain · register-cleared
HER-S03 · T1

Byzantine basilica fragments

Kafr Qoud · in situ preservation
HER-S05 · T1

Ottoman caravanserai

Al-Baja · adaptive reuse
HER-S08 · T1

Spring-source shrine

Ras Al-Ain · public access protected
HER-S02 · T1

Iron-age settlement

Yafour upland · perimeter park
HER-S09 · T1

Mamluk waterworks

As-Salboura · interpretive corridor
HER-S11 · T1

Ottoman village core

Qatana · integrated, not displaced
HER-S12 · T1

Mt. Hermon visual axis

Corridor-wide protected sightline
04.C17 Verification Gates · all open

Seventeen gates remain open.
Until cleared, the gate is named.

Ten spatial gates, seven platform gates. Each gate is an open question with an owner and a clearance protocol. Anything dependent on an open gate is labelled accordingly.

Spatial Gates · 10
VG-SP-01Cadastre & land title
VG-SP-02Heritage assets inventory
VG-SP-03Military exclusion zones
VG-SP-04Hydrology & flood risk
VG-SP-05Traffic counts & O-D survey
VG-SP-06Utility capacity
VG-SP-07Geotechnical survey
VG-SP-08Environmental baseline
VG-SP-09Demographic ground-truth
VG-SP-10Post-Sharaa regulatory framework
Platform Gates · 7
VG-PLAT-01Spatial data licensing
VG-PLAT-02Esri ArcGIS Urban seat count
VG-PLAT-03Autodesk AEC Collection licence
VG-PLAT-04VCS VC Suite 2026 availability
VG-PLAT-05 ⚠Sanctions screening — ALL vendors (critical)
VG-PLAT-06Sovereign hosting region
VG-PLAT-07PostGIS open-source fallback
04.DRisk Register · R-01 — R-10

Ten risks named.
Two are critical.

ID
Risk
Severity
R-01
Sanctions / export-control violation — Western vendor onboarding blocked until cleared.
CRITICAL
R-02
Title risk — Hezbollah-linked or otherwise encumbered land within or adjacent to corridor.
HIGH
R-03
Post-conflict property-law uncertainty — disputed pre-conflict tenure.
HIGH
R-04
Regulatory framework gap — post-Sharaa zoning, building code, and approvals architecture.
HIGH
R-05
Security incident — regional military action affecting site or supply chain.
HIGH
R-06
Hydrology constraint — sub-basin water budget tighter than modelled.
MEDIUM
R-07
Skilled-labour pipeline — local construction capacity insufficient for Phase B/C velocity.
MEDIUM
R-08
Currency / capital-flow constraint affecting tranche release.
MEDIUM
R-09
Diaspora-return pace slower than programme target — Phase B occupancy trigger slips.
MEDIUM
R-10
Vendor non-compliance — downstream sanctions exposure via sub-tier supplier.
CRITICAL
⚠ DOCUMENTED INCIDENT

July 2025 · Yafour Zone-2 airdrop event.

An Israeli airdrop event in Yafour Zone-2 (July 2025) is documented as hard-evidence security input. The incident is reflected in site-security posture, insurance assumptions, and the 500 m military exclusion buffer. It does not move the planning envelope — but it is named.

04.ELand-Title Protocol · 5 Steps

Title runs through five steps.
No step is optional.

1

Tabu trace

Title trace from current registry back to the Mandate cadastral baseline.

2

OFAC / EU / UK screen

Sanctions screening of all parties in the title chain, including ultimate beneficial owners.

3

Encumbrance check

Mortgages, easements, leases, disputes — all encumbrances surfaced and either cleared or disclosed.

4

Counsel review

Post-conflict property-law counsel review — pre-conflict tenure, displaced-owner claims, restitution exposure.

5

Cadastral verify

Field cadastral verification — pegs, boundaries, neighbour confirmation — before any binding commitment.

04.FEvidence Discipline

Three disciplines.
They run on every output.

Single Source of Truth · SSOT

14 canonical values are displayed verbatim across every artefact — no rounding, no rephrasing, no audience-dependent variants.

  • · 13,010 ha · total corridor
  • · 7,350 ha · agricultural belt
  • · 820 ha · T1 open space
  • · 130 ha · T6 urban core
  • · 28 km · BRT spine
  • · 14 · BRT stations
  • · 1,000,000 · residents at maturity
  • · 258,000 · dwelling units
  • · $30.9B · total development value
  • · $4.2B · Phase A capital
  • · 400,000 · permanent jobs
  • · 62% · transit mode-share target
  • · 500 m · Yafour military buffer
  • · 4,210 · agri-belt households
Six Forbidden Conclusions ✗

Reasoning patterns explicitly prohibited — these collapses appear plausible and are not.

  1. Broker quotes ≠ market price.
  2. 2004 census ≠ current population.
  3. Satellite imagery ≠ legal ownership.
  4. Master plans ≠ current zoning in force.
  5. Enquiries received ≠ confirmed demand.
  6. Infrastructure maps ≠ operational capacity.
8-Item QC Discipline Checklist · runs on every output
QC-1
SSOT values correct, verbatim.
QC-2
Highway designation limited to M2 / M30 only.
QC-3
Every claim carries a truth-level tag.
QC-4
T0 claims explicitly flagged as assumption.
QC-5
No forbidden conclusions present.
QC-6
Gate-number cited for open dependencies.
QC-7
As-Salboura nomenclature warning surfaced.
QC-8
No errors carried over from prior document drafts.
04.GDecisions Log · v0.2 pending sponsor sign-off

Five decisions are open.
Each one is named.

TIER 1 · GROUND TRUTH
REG-001

Claim title

Source

—

Method

—

As of

—

Note

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